Why Sara Duterte is changing her tone on Philippines’ South China Sea conflict

Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio has twice in recent weeks urged the country’s armed forces to defend its sovereignty, in a carefully calibrated attempt to sound more assertive on the South China Sea issue without directly challenging Beijing, according to analysts.

While Duterte-Carpio did not name China, her repeated calls marked a tonal shift from her earlier approach, when she either avoided the issue or warned against letting it define Manila’s broader relationship with Beijing.

Duterte-Carpio is widely seen as the current front runner for the 2028 presidential race, raising questions over whether she would continue the China-friendly approach of her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, or adjust it at a time of growing public concern over maritime sovereignty.

In a video message marking the Philippine Navy’s 128th anniversary on Wednesday, Duterte-Carpio praised naval personnel for their “steadfast commitment to defending our sovereignty and the integrity of our maritime territory”.

“Amid the challenges in our seas, you serve as the nation’s first line of defence. Your duty is no small task – protecting our territory means safeguarding the future of the next generation of Filipinos,” she said.

  

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