Mainland Chinese shipyards delivered more than twice as much naval tonnage as their US counterparts in 2024 and 2025, according to a new survey, exposing a growing production gap that analysts say could weigh heavily in a prolonged conflict over Taiwan.
Tonnage alone is an imperfect measure of naval power, specialists cautioned, pointing to ongoing US advantages in submarine technology, aircraft carriers and operational experience. They also highlighted China’s ability to draw on commercial shipyards, unmanned systems and dual-use civilian vessels during a conflict. But they differed on how far the balance between the two had already shifted.
The Chinese mainland turned out 636,208 tonnes of military, paramilitary and auxiliary vessels over the two years, against 270,509 tonnes from American builders, the survey showed.
The survey, compiled by maritime intelligence publication Flottes de Combat and the French Naval Industry Association, found China accounted for more than 43 per cent of global naval production tonnage in the two years, compared with just over 18 per cent for the US.