With a fragile US-Iran ceasefire barely holding, the Strait of Hormuz still blockaded, and all eyes on the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, investors are embracing a new market narrative: “Nacho”.
The acronym – short for “Not a Chance Hormuz Opens” – reflects a growing bet on prolonged gridlock and high oil prices.
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This marks a sharp pivot from last year’s dominant trade tactic, “Taco” – “Trump Always Chickens Out”, which was born in the chaos of Trump’s tariff blitz and relied on the assumption that the President would ultimately back down.
Now, the old recipe no longer works – and Wall Street is trading chips for Nachos.
What is Nacho?
The term gained traction after Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas shared it on social media in late April, attributing the phrase to a trader.
Much like the term “TACO” – which was coined as investors grew wary of Trump’s strategy of using massive tariffs as leverage – this new acronym reflects a shift in market sentiment as the Middle East conflict is now at the forefront of investor concern.
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Although “Operation Epic Fury” – the US military action against Iran that launched in February – has concluded, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week, the regional outlook remains bleak. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively blocked and a full de-escalation has yet to materialise, leaving the global economy shrouded in uncertainty.