Western airlines risk suffering greater disruption than their Chinese rivals this summer, as the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel – compounded by US military strikes – forces most carriers to avoid flying over dangerous airspace on China-Europe routes.
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Analysts said that while almost all carriers have diverted services to bypass Iran and parts of the Middle East, Western firms are at a disadvantage: they remain barred from Russian airspace, which Chinese companies continue to use.
“For travellers, especially those from China, it’s all about airfare and flight times,” said an analyst at the Shanghai-based aviation news portal and consultancy Airwefly.
“The latest developments may widen the competitive gap Chinese airlines already have over others.”
Iran, Israel, Iraq and Jordan have intermittently closed their airspace since the Israeli government began its military campaign against Iran on June 13. The United States launched air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, raising fears of a wider regional war and further disrupting flights between Europe and Asia.
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Both Western and Chinese carriers have avoided Iranian skies in recent days over concerns that their aircraft could be misidentified by air defence systems. Flight diversions and cancellations increased after Tehran’s missile assault on an American military base in Qatar on Monday, according to airlines and some media reports.
Western firms have diverted flights through Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan as well as southern routes over Egypt and Saudi Arabia, according to airlines and some media reports. In contrast, Chinese airlines have more flexibility after Moscow closed its airspace to the West after the Russia-Ukraine war started in 2022.