A summit between Russia and Asean next week promises to ease Southeast Asia’s energy crisis and Moscow’s diplomatic isolation – but not all of the bloc’s leaders are expected to show up.
Analysts are also divided on whether Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, the current Asean chair, will travel to Kazan for the meeting, hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 17–18.
The summit marks the 35th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Russia. The two sides held their first summit in Kuala Lumpur in 2005; the last time it took place on Russian soil was in Sochi in 2016.
Late last month, Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro said that she and Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov had spoken by phone about the event and discussed “the prospects of expanding Russia’s strategic partnership” with Asean.
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The Philippines has yet to confirm whether Marcos will attend, though Lazaro did earlier indicate that both leaders would meet.
Writing on the Russian Foreign Ministry website over the weekend, Lavrov said Moscow “looks forward to welcoming in Kazan the heads of all Asean member states”, singling out Marcos in particular.
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Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, said competing pressures weighed on Manila. “Despite the acute energy deficit, which makes improved ties with Russia sensible, Manila’s deepening security ties with the US and Japan may be a factor to consider,” he said.
