The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, on Oct. 30 projected that Democrats would win control of the House and called them slight favorites to win the Senate.
In updates released four days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Cook now expects Democrats to flip 12 to 25 House seats—giving them as many as 240 seats and their largest majority since 2009—the election forecaster said in its House analysis.
Democrats would reach 240 if they win every seat Cook rates in their favor plus all 18 Toss-Up races.
Cook changed ratings in 12 House races, all toward a more competitive map that favors Democrats.
Two moved to Lean Democrat: Pennsylvania’s 8th District, held by Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), and Ohio’s 9th District, held by Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio).
Three Republican-held seats became Toss-Ups: Colorado’s 5th District, held by Rep. Jeff Crank (R-Colo.); Pennsylvania’s 1st District, held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.); and South Carolina’s open 1st District.
Republicans remain favored in the other seven even though they are now considered more competitive.
Cook moved three races from Likely to Lean Republican: Indiana’s 5th District, held by Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.); Florida’s open 7th District; and Florida’s 9th District, held by Rep. Darren Soto (D-Fla.).
Cook said Soto’s district, after redistricting, would have voted for President Donald Trump by 18 points.
Four seats moved from Solid to Likely Republican, including North Carolina’s 9th District, held by Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
Cook said Hudson has spent half a million dollars on TV ads against Democrat Richard Ojeda, a retired Army veteran, and that Republicans are concerned about low turnout in North Carolina.
The others are held by Reps. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), and Michael Baumgartner (R-Wash.).
In its Senate analysis, Cook kept seven races rated Toss Up: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Michigan is the only one of the seven held by a Democrat.
Democrats need to gain four seats to win a majority. Cook expects them to gain between two and six.
Cook rates North Carolina’s open Republican-held seat, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running, as Likely Democrat and said it expects that race to be Democrats’ first pickup of the night.
It moved Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), from Likely to Lean Republican. It also moved Florida, where Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.) faces Democrat Angie Nixon, from Solid to Likely Republican.
Cook said Republicans still have a plausible, though less likely, path to keeping the Senate, especially if polls have undercounted Republican voters.
Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said on CNN on Oct. 30 that Democrats have seen 291 race rating changes in their direction since Labor Day and are on offense in 66 districts.
Asked how many seats Democrats would pick up, DelBene declined to give a number.
“We’re going to take back the majority,” she said, adding she believed Democrats would have a strong governing majority.
She pointed to Hudson’s district as an example, saying North Carolina Republicans had redrawn the state’s congressional maps to gain seats and that the effort is backfiring.
Republicans and Democrats redrew maps to favor their own parties this cycle, and several other states are considering more changes before the 2028 election.
In a statement to The Epoch Times, DCCC Communications Director Courtney Rice said the ratings changes reflect voters backing Democrats who will fight to lower costs for families.
“Democrats are leaving everything on the field in these final four days, and we’ll continue that fight through Election Day and beyond,” Rice said.
In a statement to The Epoch Times, NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said House races are won district by district, with tested candidates and messages that work.
“Pundits in D.C. can keep guessing, but voters on the ground have a clear contrast between common sense and crazy,” Marinella said, adding that Republicans would win in November.
The Democratic and Republican Senate campaign arms did not respond to requests for comment from The Epoch Times by publication time.
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