The United States represents the primary obstacle to continuing oil-for-loan arrangements between China and Venezuela, analysts say, creating a significant wild card in what ranks among the largest debt restructurings in history.
Following Washington’s abduction in January of Venezuela’s then president, Nicolas Maduro, Caracas is set to reveal a US$240 billion debt pile, according to a Financial Times report on Wednesday.
The disclosure, expected in the coming weeks, rivals the €200 billion default by Greece in 2012 during the euro zone crisis and stands to be the largest sovereign resolution ever in Latin America.
And in a departure from standard sovereign crises, the recovery framework was set to be managed by the US government rather than the International Monetary Fund, according to the report.
Analysts said the resolution would rank among the most complex sovereign debt settlements globally, given the dispersion of claims across multiple creditor types and jurisdictions, with the fate of China’s oil-linked debt a primary uncertainty.
While official data is opaque and Beijing has largely frozen new lending in recent years, data from various think tanks puts China’s total lending to the administrations of Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, at upwards of US$60 billion, with the funds largely funnelled into infrastructure projects.