China’s contribution to global growth is underestimated while the yuan is positioned to emerge as a fundamentally strong global currency, according to a new study from a prominent Beijing-based think tank.
Researchers from the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) – comprising senior regulators and financial experts – said the country’s investment scale could be as much as 3.4 times that of the United States when measured by the volume of physical investment.
The analysis, published in a note on Sunday, far exceeds estimates based on commonly used international metrics and comes as Beijing seeks to further expand its economic and financial influence.
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“China’s contribution to global growth and the spillover effects of its economic fluctuations are both likely to be insufficiently understood,” the authors wrote.
The think tank attributed the gap to the relatively low cost of investment goods in China, which it estimated at about 37 per cent of US levels. On that basis, it calculated an investment purchasing power parity of 2.6 yuan per US dollar – stronger than market rates and widely used estimates.
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“As China’s economy recovers and transitions from the old to the new economy, rising prices are expected to bring the yuan’s valuation closer to its fundamentals, supporting its emergence as a strong currency,” the note’s authors wrote.