Beijing escalated rare-earth controls, and Washington hit back with “100% tariffs + restrictions on key software” (taking effect as soon as 11/1). Beijing quickly toned it down: “Export controls are not a ban.” But markets and supply chains are already rattled, and foreign capital is widening its wait-and-see stance. Meanwhile, red lights are flashing in real estate and business: Vanke’s debt gap is widening, state capital “blood transfusions” are self-harming, and The Economist reveals a wave of “disappearing executives.” This isn’t just a tariff tit-for-tat; it’s a stress test of politics and the economy on the eve of the Fourth Plenum: play with fire, pay the price.
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