In today’s complex global economy, few issues stir more intense emotions than tariffs. US President Donald Trump’s tariff narrative has captured the hearts of many Americans. He painted a picture of a victimised America, its manufacturing base hollowed out and jobs shipped overseas. He promised to restore national greatness by wielding tariffs as a magic wand. While this narrative was a political triumph, it was built on a series of exaggerations and, when translated into policy, has ultimately fallen short.
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To understand the narrative’s resonance, it is necessary to look beyond economic data and connect with the anxieties within US society. While national economic data shows steady growth, this macro-level success has failed to alleviate the pain in specific industrial communities. Trump’s genius has been to simplify these complex issues, boiling them down to a single, external enemy: trade partners taking advantage of America.
He has framed massive trade deficits as evidence of plunder, resonating with those who felt forgotten by globalisation and making them feel they finally have a leader fighting on their behalf. The promise of tariffs was not just economic; it was a pledge to return to a time that felt more certain and stable, offering a sense of belonging to those who felt adrift in a rapidly changing world.
The narrative of a stagnating America, while politically potent, is not supported by the data. The idea that most Americans have suffered a decline in their standard of living is false. The fundamental number to consider is median disposable household income, or the income of the family in the middle. The median is a more accurate measure than the average because it isn’t skewed by the extremely high incomes of top earners.
According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the median US income in 2021 was the second-highest in the world, behind only Luxembourg. This figure is not static, either, as real median personal income in the US has risen by around 50 per cent since the 1970s.
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The narrative of widespread job loss also requires nuance. While it is true that some communities have been hit by globalisation, this is a story of disruption, not collapse. The “China shock” has led to significant job losses, with economists such as David Autor estimating about 2.4 million American jobs were lost between 1999 and 2011.