‘You go first’: Trump’s Ukraine shift raises pressure on Europe to end war

As Ukraine and its allies absorbed the surprise from US President Donald Trump’s newly upbeat view of Kyiv’s prospects in its war against Russia’s invasion, there were signs of a familiar move by the US president – upping the pressure not on Russia but on Europe.

Trump’s social media post on Tuesday reversed his past claims that Ukraine had “no cards to play” in the fight. But he did not offer any new US steps to support Kyiv, leaving that up to allies in Europe. The post made no mention of new moves to tighten sanctions on Russia, either.

In public, Ukrainian and European officials hailed Trump’s verbal shift, which followed a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Privately, they were more cautious, sensing he was pushing the responsibility for ending the war to them. Though Trump seemed to set a baseline for US support – easing allied fears of a cut-off of vital military aid – officials also warned that Trump’s view may change again.

His assertion that Ukraine could retake – with Europe’s support – the 20 per cent of its territory lost to Russia also goes against most allied intelligence assessments, which see a bloody stalemate as the most either side can hope for at present. The Kremlin has dramatically stepped up strikes in the six weeks since Trump hosted Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss a peace deal, though progress on the ground has been limited.

By suggesting Russia could be a “paper tiger” on the verge of economic crisis, Trump is “really just trying to get under Putin’s skin”, said Kurt Volker, who was special envoy for Ukraine talks in Trump’s first term. “But he doesn’t suggest that he’s going to do anything about it.”

Russia’s economy is increasingly feeling the pain of the war effort – the government warned on Wednesday that it plans to raise taxes to help offset the cost – and Ukraine’s strikes on energy and other infrastructure have reached deep behind the front lines.