On December 14, South Korea’s National Assembly successfully impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol on its second attempt. The impeachment has headed to the Constitutional Court, which has up to six months to review it. On Friday, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo who had assumed the role of acting president was also impeached.
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If Yoon’s impeachment is upheld, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung could become the new president and recalibrate Yoon’s domestic and foreign policy directions with the backing of a legislative majority. If Yoon’s impeachment is overturned and he resumes office, his unpopularity would make it unlikely that any meaningful agenda would be advanced. Legal battles and political paralysis are expected to drag on until mid-2025, adding an unsettling layer of uncertainty to the region.
This unfolding saga is a textbook example of a black swan: a low-probability, high-impact occurrence that shocks a system and prompts recalibration. Although there were subtle signs in retrospect, the scale and timing of the crisis blindsided many. For a democracy as robust and economically powerful as South Korea, its descent into such turmoil is difficult to fathom.
As East Asia enters a 2025 in which Donald Trump returns for a second term as US president, South Korea’s crisis raises a pressing question: are there other black swan events lurking for the region?
Taiwan, another pillar of regional stability, offers early warning signs of an upheaval. Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in a legislative deadlock with the opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party coalition, and grappling with mounting polarisation over cross-strait relations. With key elections in 2026 and 2028 looming, Lai faces growing pressure to unify a fractured electorate.
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Earlier this month, a social media post swiftly deleted by the DPP appeared to show support for Yoon’s decision to declare martial law, sparking fears that Lai might consider a similar measure under the guise of countering mainland threats.