Former US president Donald Trump’s complicated relationship with Elon Musk, America’s most mercurial billionaire and chief executive of the commercial rocket launch company SpaceX, could wield a profound influence on US space policy in the years ahead.
The more entrepreneurial and deregulated approach both men advocate for space comes as China builds on significant successes in its astronautics programme, which some analysts say could further escalate the space race if Trump is re-elected president in November.
Musk, who relies on China as a core market for his business empire – especially for his Tesla electric vehicles – has pledged to support Trump’s campaign, creating a complicated and geopolitically entangled path to these ambitions. The wild card may be which side Musk opts to depend on more.
“I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery,” he declared on X, the social media platform that he owns, posting shortly after Trump survived an assassination attempt this month.
During the Republican National Convention, The Wall Street Journal reported that Musk was committing US$45 million a month to a new political action committee backing Trump. This week, though, Musk said that his contributions were “at a much lower level”.
Trump now faces a rejuvenated Democratic Party, following US President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and Vice-President Kamala Harris’ emergence as his probable rival, so he is likely to need whatever Musk provides.
The two men differ on the potential of electric vehicles – Trump has repeatedly attacked and ridiculed them on the campaign trail, though in recent appearances he has softened his remarks – but they share an interest in space exploration. In recent months, they have reportedly discussed a possible advisory role for Musk in a second Trump administration.
“Given what we know about Trump’s past history and the overall influence of campaign donations, it would be hard to imagine that this money won’t buy Musk considerable leverage in a Trump administration – including potentially advising in a semi-official capacity,” said Steven Feldstein, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank.
Since the US and China will probably continue their “intensified” tech competition, with space “a key aspect to future rivalry”, Feldstein said, Musk “is likely to lobby a Trump administration for more resources and more favourable contracts for his companies and interests”.
Svetla Ben-Itzhak, an assistant professor of space and international relations at Johns Hopkins University, said that “Musk’s endorsement of Trump is likely to prioritise and bolster funding and support for ambitious space exploration missions”, such as human missions to the moon and Mars.
“Musk’s endorsement might push for increased deregulation in the space industry, benefiting commercial space companies like SpaceX. While this can encourage new entrants and activities, it may also have serious drawbacks, including decreased safety, quality and security standards,” she said.
Even if Trump loses, Musk will still have influence with a Democratic administration, she added, because SpaceX’s achievements – from reusable rockets to ferrying astronauts – have made the company integral to US national space priorities.
Lori Garver, a former deputy administrator of Nasa, also said that either new administration would continue to work with and “fully utilise” SpaceX.
“The Trump administration was favourable to commercial space before and if they came in again, I would assume they would continue that stance,” she said, adding that the commercial space arena is less politicised.
While SpaceX stands to gain significantly under Trump, who elevated US space policy during his first presidency, the US finds itself in a new space race with China, which has achieved notable success with robotic lunar landings and sample return missions. If re-elected, Trump would need Musk and SpaceX to prevail in the space race.
From resumed lunar programmes to the US Space Force, a new military division, Biden continued nearly all the space-related policies initiated during the Trump administration.
Since 2003, SpaceX has been awarded US$15.3 billion in government contracts for transporting astronauts to the International Space Station for Nasa and launching satellites for the Pentagon. In 2023 alone, SpaceX received US$3.1 billion in government contracts from the Biden administration.
That’s because SpaceX has a near monopoly on rocket launches in the US. In 2023, the company had 96 successful orbital launches from the US, while its competitors had seven. So far this year, according to spaceexplored.com, which tracks launches, SpaceX has launched 72 rockets.
In June, a SpaceX Starship rocket successfully completed a test flight. The rocket is not only key to Musk’s vision of sending people to Mars, but also critical for US plans to return astronauts to the moon, now set for 2026.
Musk also plans to launch private citizens using SpaceX Starships, and build the infrastructure necessary to build a city on Mars – a goal Trump shares.
“We’ve done the moon. That’s not so exciting. So we’ll be doing the moon. But we’ll really be doing Mars,” Trump said in 2019.
In Red Moon Rising, Greg Autry, Trump’s White House liaison to Nasa in 2017, and Peter Navarro, a key Trump adviser on trade, contend that China was “intimidated” by the “efficiency” of American private space enterprises.
Companies like SpaceX are crucial to winning the new space race against China, they say, but the US must also renegotiate the Outer Space Treaty, first signed under the auspices of the United Nations in 1967, to address 21st century concerns.
Musk’s empire is heavily reliant on Beijing. Most of his net worth comes from Tesla, for which China is a core market despite ferocious competition from Chinese EV rivals like BYD.
Last year, after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco, Musk posted a photo of them on Weibo, the Chinese social media platform, saying: “May there be prosperity for all”.
In April, he met Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing, his second visit to China in less than a year.
Andrew Maynard, a professor of advanced technology transfers at Arizona State University, said Musk could consider collaborating with the US or China on space exploration.
“From a technology and rational perspective, it makes sense for Musk to work with whoever is going to help him get to his end goals as fast as possible,” he said.
“But with rising tensions between America and China, if Musk decides that technically it is better aligning with China partnerships, that could actually impede his relationship with Nasa and the US.
“So there’s a political calculus that needs to go into those decisions.”
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SpaceX loses contact with Starship minutes after reaching space
SpaceX loses contact with Starship minutes after reaching space
Pentagon officials have reportedly also been wary of depending too much on SpaceX or any other private company. In April, the US Space Force said it was trying to “appropriately balance government and commercial solutions while avoiding overreliance on any single provider or solution”.
Garver said while the US commercial space sector should see continued competition, there are concerns about relying on Musk’s SpaceX, which is not publicly traded.
“In the past we relied on monopoly providers, but they were publicly traded [or] owned companies, so sure – there’s some nervousness and attention, as there had been from the beginning, that commercial partnerships would not be exclusive to one company,” she said.
