Donald Trump’s return to the presidency didn’t just shift US politics. It triggered a systemic stress test of the American republic. Constitutional, strategic, technological, fiscal and civic stabilisers are under simultaneous strain. Whether the United States adapts or drifts will shape the character of its institutions for decades.
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The most visible stress is constitutional. Early directives concentrated authority in the executive branch. Oversight officials have been removed, independent agency heads replaced and sweeping claims of presidential immunity asserted. Several of these actions are before the Supreme Court, whose decisions will shape the balance between the presidency, Congress and the courts for years.
This is not the first time executive power has expanded. During the Civil War, the New Deal era and post-September 11, concentrated executive authority led to durable realignments and redefined institutional boundaries. The current moment has similar potential.
Due process protections are also under pressure. Immigration enforcement practices, education policy changes and politically timed prosecutions have triggered constitutional challenges. Historically, the Fifth and 14th Amendments served as legal firewalls. Their resilience will be a critical measure of whether checks and balances still function.
Strategic dependency forms another axis of stress. The Ukraine minerals agreement gives US companies access to titanium, lithium and graphite. The US also wants to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earth processing. Without substantial domestic investment, the US remains strategically dependent on external supply chains.
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What are rare earths, and why is China’s dominance facing global pushback
What are rare earths, and why is China’s dominance facing global pushback
These vulnerabilities are unfolding in an external environment under strain. China’s consolidation of critical mineral supply chains, advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum technologies, and growing maritime assertiveness coincide with Russia’s war on Ukraine and the strategic repositioning of non-aligned states. External pressures amplify internal ones: limited strategic flexibility abroad constrains decision-making at home, while domestic fragmentation signals uncertainty.