Resource constraints and precedent mean China is unlikely to become one of Ukraine’s security guarantors – despite Russia’s suggestion that it could, according to analysts.
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With rising expectations for a face-to-face meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, security guarantees for Kyiv have taken centre stage in discussions about a peace deal with Moscow to end Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.
During a press conference on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow had agreed to develop a system of security guarantees involving all permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, including China, plus several other states, during direct negotiations with Kyiv in April 2022.
His comment came after US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday that Putin had agreed at the Alaska summit to allow the United States and Europe to effectively offer a Nato-style security guarantee to Kyiv as part of a potential peace deal.
The Russian leader said he was willing to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine but mentioned China as one of the possible guarantors during the meeting, the American news site Axios reported on Saturday, citing an anonymous source.
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Zhu Junwei, director of Horizon Insights Centre, a Chinese think tank, said Beijing was not expected to take a high-profile role in future discussions over security guarantees for Ukraine.
She noted that there were different types of “guarantees”, and it remained unclear what kind of “guarantee” Putin had reportedly mentioned.