Last month’s US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities could strengthen North Korea’s view that nuclear weapons are vital for its survival, deepening Pyongyang’s distrust and reinforcing its commitment to nuclear arms, security experts have warned.
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They added that the attacks were likely to undermine denuclearisation efforts on the Korean peninsula, a goal shared by Beijing, and that increasing US pressure on North Korea risked destabilising the region and encouraging nuclear proliferation.
Stephen Costello, a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said, “North Korean leaders may confirm their previous assessment: that [US President Donald] Trump acts for reasons that are not ‘security’ or geopolitical-related. He is therefore an emotional, unpredictable force, and not one that is trustworthy at all.”
According to Niklas Swanstrom, executive director of the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy, the US strikes on Iran are likely to drive North Korea to make its nuclear arsenal more “mobile and dispersed”, prioritise second-strike capability, and invest heavily in deep underground facilities and redundant production capabilities.
“Any remaining possibility of North Korean denuclearisation will be effectively terminated, as the regime will view nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantee of survival,” Swanstrom said.
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During his first term, Trump held a series of historic talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the issue.
The first summit in Singapore in 2018 resulted in a joint statement with vague commitments to denuclearisation, while a second a year later in Hanoi, Vietnam, ended abruptly without a deal.