Why latest Philippine warning of South China Sea war may not be cause for serious alarm

Chinese analysts have said the risk of conflict in the South China Sea is low despite the warning by the Philippine defence minister that it would be an “act of war” if Beijing removed a ship moored at a disputed atoll.

Gilberto Teodoro Jnr told CBS that “if China were to take the Sierra Madre, that is a clear act of war on the Philippine vessel”, adding that in such an event, the United States would be expected to step in to help its ally.

The BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era warship, was deliberately grounded at Second Thomas Shoal by the Philippines in 1999 to assert the country’s territorial claim and it has been manned by a small contingent of marines since then.

“That is an outpost of Philippine sovereignty so we’re not only talking about a rusty old vessel solely. We are talking about a piece of Philippine territory there,” Teodoro added.

The US and Philippines signed a mutual defence treaty in 1951 under which Washington has promised to help Manila if its armed forces come under attack.