Why Donald Trump’s win could mean a defence budget nightmare for Taiwan

US president-elect Donald Trump made Taiwan a focal point of his 2024 campaign, advocating increased defence spending by the island and casting a critical eye on its semiconductor dominance.

While some Taiwanese officials have dismissed these statements as campaign rhetoric, Trump’s repeated calls for Taiwan to pay “protection fees” and increase its defence spending to 10 per cent of GDP now signal real pressure.

This has ignited urgent questions about Taiwan’s ability to meet these demands and secure critical US military support as the island faces a growing threat from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Trump has said Taiwan must bear a greater share of defence costs, framing US support as conditional on Taipei’s contribution.

In an October 25 podcast with Joe Rogan, Trump also accused Taiwan of “taking our chip business”, repeating his belief that the island must do more for American support.

For Taiwan’s independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government, these expectations are nearly untenable.

Analysts say that while the 10 per cent GDP target is probably off the table, a bipartisan US consensus calling for a spending goal of 3 to 5 per cent will be harder to ignore.