Recent weeks have seen a sharp decline in Sino-Japanese people-to-people exchanges. All flights on 12 routes from mainland Chinese cities to Japan had been cancelled as of November 24, reportedly due to low demand. According to the Civil Aviation Data Analysis System, some 12 per cent of flights between China and Japan scheduled between November 24 and January 18 have been cancelled. On some routes, more than half have been cancelled.
Chinese tourists, Japan’s largest inbound group, had contributed about 590 billion yen (US$3.77 billion) in consumption in the July-September quarter alone this year.
Earlier this month, the Chinese authorities issued travel advisories urging caution after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Tokyo could intervene militarily on the Taiwan issue.
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The wave of cancellations by Chinese tourists is far more than a mere ripple effect of the diplomatic row – it is a massive public backlash. “Not decided yet but definitely not Japan this year,” confessed a friend of mine. Every winter for the past few years, she had devoted her annual leave to a retreat at Japan’s hot springs.
In suggesting a Taiwan crisis could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, Takaichi crossed a red line. That imperial Japan’s decades-long colonial rule is estimated to have caused more than 600,000 military and civilian casualties in Taiwan undermines any moral right Tokyo has to comment on Taiwan’s future.
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As Chinese President Xi Jinping made clear in his latest phone call with US President Donald Trump, Taiwan’s return is an integral part of the post-war international order. According to a Chinese readout of the call, the US “understands how important the Taiwan question is to China”. Soon after, Trump and Takaichi spoke on the phone – although the Japanese leader did not say if her Taiwan comment was discussed.
I recall my university Japanese teacher explaining Ruth Benedict’s concept from The Chrysanthemum and the Sword of “shame culture”, where social norms and expectations play a crucial role in regulating Japanese behaviour, in contrast to the Western “guilt culture” where internalised moral codes are more prominent.