Who will succeed Pope Francis? Exploring potential candidates from Vatican circles

A popular saying in Vatican circles is that if you “enter a conclave as pope, you leave as a cardinal.”

It implies the sacred and secretive process is no popularity contest or campaign, but rather the divinely inspired election of Christ’s Vicar on Earth by the princes of the church.

Still, there were always front-runners, known as “papabile,” who had at least some of the qualities considered necessary to be pope – much like those depicted in last year’s Oscar-nominated film Conclave.

Any baptised Catholic male is eligible, though only cardinals have been selected since 1378. The winner must receive at least two-thirds of the vote from those cardinals under age 80 and thus eligible to participate. Pope Francis, who died on Monday, appointed the vast majority of electors, often tapping men who share his pastoral priorities, which suggests continuity rather than rupture.

Anyone trying to handicap the outcome should remember that Jorge Mario Bergoglio was considered too old to be elected pope in 2013 at age 76, and that Karol Wojtyla wasn’t on any front-runner lists going into the 1978 conclave that elected him Pope John Paul II.

Cardinal Peter Erdo

Erdo, 72, the archbishop of Budapest and primate of Hungary, was twice elected head of the Council of European Episcopal Conferences, in 2005 and 2011, suggesting he enjoys the esteem of European cardinals who make up the biggest voting bloc of electors. In that capacity, Erdo got to know many African cardinals because the council hosts regular sessions with African bishops’ conferences.

  

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