The Chinese business community in France is anxiously awaiting clarity on the country’s economic direction following French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s shock announcement on Monday that he plans to call a vote of confidence on his centrist minority government on September 8.
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His high-stakes gamble, which most political pundits expect to fail, is of particular concern for Chinese businesses because it could open the door to power for the protectionist far-right National Rally party.
Bayrou announced the confidence vote in a news conference focused on the country’s dire debt situation, following widespread public opposition to austerity measures he has proposed to cut spending and increase productivity – including removing two public holidays in May.
His move has sparked speculation about the likelihood of fresh parliamentary elections, with the current fragmented chamber unable to create a stable government. Mainstream polls in recent months have all put the National Rally and its allies far ahead of a leftist coalition and French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc.
“The National Rally is not pro-China, they are protectionists and anti-Europe, close to [United States President Donald] Trump,” said Sacha Courtial, a China researcher at the French think tank Institut Jacques Delors.
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“It’s much more likely that they will align themselves with the US against China.”
And while National Rally does not officially deny climate change, its politicians have often voted against related legislation in the National Assembly, and some of its members have claimed that human activity is not to blame.