Beijing is expected to calibrate its response to Japan with caution, weighing potential punitive measures against the risk of economic blowback, analysts say. And while China possesses an arsenal of levers – from tourism curbs to export controls – the experts warn that a heavy hand could backfire.
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“China won’t move abruptly,” said Xu Weijun, an assistant research professor with the Institute of Public Policy at the South China University of Technology. He noted that economic interdependence means that any aggressive strike would rebound onto China at a time when Beijing wants to project itself as an open, rules-based trading power fighting protectionism.
“Leaning too heavily on economic countermeasures could undercut that strategy and unsettle foreign investors and partners,” Xu said.
The diplomatic stand-off follows a suggestion by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that Tokyo could intervene militarily in the event of a Taiwan contingency. An infuriated Beijing – viewing Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary – has already responded by escalating travel warnings, suspending film screenings, and signalling a ban on Japanese seafood while ceasing talks to resume beef imports.
Ministry of Commerce spokeswoman He Yongqian warned last week that, if Japan persists, China would “take necessary and resolute measures”, forcing Tokyo to bear the consequences.
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Whether Beijing shifts from words to action depends on Tokyo’s stance, Xu said, adding that because the Takaichi administration had touched on a critical red line regarding Taiwan, China may be willing to absorb costs to retaliate if Japan refuses to change course.