US-India tensions cast doubt on future of Quad, as well as possible Trump visit

As trade tensions between Washington and New Delhi escalate, an anticipated high-profile visit of US President Donald Trump to India this fall is now clouded by uncertainty.

The rift that is testing a relationship between what their diplomats sometimes tout as the world’s oldest and largest democracies is not only weakening bilateral ties, but also casting doubt on the future of a critical Indo-Pacific bloc aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the region.

The White House has been pressing India for substantive “deliverables” the “America first” president could announce during the trip, planned for the Quad leaders’ summit in September or October, according to a person familiar with preparations for a summit.

Initially, both sides had aimed to finalise a comprehensive trade agreement to coincide with the visit to give the occasion strategic and political momentum. However, the source said that without a trade breakthrough, it is increasingly unlikely that Trump will make the trip.

The Quad, which also includes Japan and Australia, was formed in 2004 but remained dormant until 2017. Resurrected by Trump in his first term, the alliance was enthusiastically embraced by former US president Joe Biden as part of his Indo-Pacific strategy. Under Biden, the bloc was elevated to leaders’ level in 2021.

Trump threatened to “substantially” increase tariffs for India in the “next 24 hours” on Tuesday, after having berated India in recent days for making “massive” oil purchases from Russia. According to another person familiar with Indian thinking, Trump’s attacks have left New Delhi “bitter”.