Speaking at a think tank event in New Delhi last week, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon acknowledged that “geopolitical calculations are being totally upended”.
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Amid US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin having direct peace talks over the Ukraine war, the conflict in Gaza and the looming threat of a global trade war, Luxon’s remarks come at a pivotal moment. Global power dynamics are rapidly shifting, and the Indo-Pacific could soon find itself at the forefront of this transformation.
Trump has repeatedly voiced his desire for US allies to spend more on their defence. This signals a critical turning point for Indo-Pacific players after decades of understanding that the United States would be there to provide its security umbrella while China could be the partner of choice in trade and finance.
Now the era of reliance on US security appears to be over, and regional powers must envision a future with greater self-reliance and strengthened internal cooperation. If countries in the region fail to adapt to this shifting reality, they risk being caught unprepared in an increasingly fragmented global order.
After Trump told Ukraine and the rest of Europe that a “big beautiful ocean” separates the US from the war, it’s not far-fetched to think Indo-Pacific nations could soon face a similar message. Given these shifting allegiances, the call for unity and self-reliance in the region is more urgent than ever.
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Unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, Trump has not been forthcoming in clarifying his position on whether the US will defend Taiwan in case of a military conflict with mainland China. As these shifts continue, players in the Indo-Pacific will have to rebalance their relationships with both the US and China while enhancing security ties within the region.
