With less than three months to go until Brazil’s presidential election, China is closely watching a high-stakes political duel between a Beijing-friendly incumbent and his pro-Washington challenger.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who maintains close ties with Beijing, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.
His rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro – son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was jailed last year for attempting a military coup – was confirmed on Saturday as the Liberal Party’s candidate to challenge Lula in October’s election.
His father has been sentenced to more than 27 years in prison over the coup plot, but is now under house arrest due to health issues.
Analysts warn that a victory for the opposition senator could mean an “automatic alignment” with Washington, while pragmatic ties with Beijing are likely to endure because of close commercial relations.
Days after the US Trade Representative’s office imposed an additional 12.5 per cent tariff under Section 301 on major trading partners, including China and Brazil, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Lula that Beijing was ready to support Brazil in “safeguarding its own sovereignty and independence, and opposing foreign interference”.