Asean is at a critical juncture. The Southeast Asian bloc, caught between the currents of the US-China trade war, is making a dive for strategic space between a new free-trade agreement with China and the possibility of a Trump tariff meeting.
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Last month, China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations finalised negotiations to upgrade their 15-year-old free-trade agreement. Set to be signed by the end of the year, the deal aims to deepen China-Asean economic integration by incorporating digital trade, green economy initiatives and supply chain connectivity.
Bilateral trade in goods exceeded US$980 billion last year – China and Asean are each other’s biggest trading partner – underscoring the deal’s strategic weight.
At the same time, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, the current Asean chair, has written to US President Donald Trump to press for an Asean-US meeting to discuss tariffs. These include the 10 per cent baseline tariff and “reciprocal” tariffs ranging from 17 per cent for the Philippines to 49 per cent for Cambodia. Anwar is seeking a unified response to ensure trade fairness for Asean’s export-driven economies.
In this moment of tension, Asean has a critical opportunity to rise above passivity, leveraging its diplomatic agility to assert itself as a linchpin in global trade and geopolitics – and become the architect of a new regional order. Rather than being a battleground for US-China rivalry, Asean can redefine its role by fostering a neutral, inclusive trade ecosystem that prioritises regional resilience and strategic autonomy.
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This opportunity hinges on Asean’s ability to exploit the US-China rivalry. Asean’s unique position of being geographically central, economically vibrant and diplomatically neutral allows it to shape trade rules rather than merely adapt to them. But this requires navigating internal divisions and external pressures with unprecedented cohesion.