A high-level civilian war game held in Taipei this week has exposed serious vulnerabilities in Taiwan’s defences of its outer perimeter and eastern regions, prompting a retired US admiral to warn that Washington’s involvement depended on “Taiwan’s will to fight”.
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In the exercise simulating a 2030 cross-strait conflict, Taiwan lost control of key outlying territories – most notably Penghu, a group of islands 50km (30 miles) east of the main island – as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched a multifront assault that quickly outpaced Taiwan’s initial response.
The two-day simulation, organised by three Taiwanese think tanks led by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science, is one of the most detailed publicly conducted strategic exercises modelling a full-scale assault by Chinese mainland forces.
It reflects mounting concerns among local strategists and retired military leaders that Taiwan’s eastern flank and offshore islands remain dangerously exposed amid intensifying PLA threats and growing US pressure for Taiwan to bolster its own defences.
The result of the war game – whether the PLA seized Taiwan – or when the final outcome would be confirmed has not been made public, but the organisers said they would issue a full report.
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Four teams represented Taiwan, the United States, Japan and mainland China, overseen by a control group.
Notable participants included Michael Mullen, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Dennis Blair, a former US Pacific commander; and Shigeru Iwasaki, former chief of staff of Japan’s Self-Defence Forces. Nine retired Taiwanese generals and admirals, including Lee Hsi-min, former chief of the general staff; and eight lieutenant generals also took part.