Disputes in the South China Sea have heightened insecurity in the Indo-Pacific, with claimant nations pursuing diplomatic and legal resolutions, including arbitration, while non-claimant states have advocated for freedom of navigation and compliance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos).
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Over the years, Asean and China have sought to maintain peace and stability by resolving long-standing territorial disputes peacefully, first with the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in November 2002, and later through negotiations for a Code of Conduct (COC) framework adopted in August 2017.
However, a serious gap remains between the diplomatic efforts and the complex reality of drafting the binding COC.
Since negotiations started in March 2018, there have been no apparent breakthroughs for early conclusion of the COC. As a result, this lack of progress jeopardises the credibility of Asean and China, increasing tensions and the potential for conflict.
Although there was reason for optimism following the third reading of the Single Draft COC Negotiating Text, the Asean Foreign Ministers’ Retreat held on January 19 in Langkawi, Malaysia reiterated the importance of maintaining positive momentum towards the early conclusion of an effective and substantive COC that is in accordance with international law, including the 1982 Unclos treaty.
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A revised strategy will be essential for progressing COC negotiations to more effectively address conflicting sovereignty claims among the claimants; otherwise, the dream of an effective binding code will remain problematic and elusive.