India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is bracing for a fiercely contested state election in Bihar starting on Thursday, in a race analysts say could determine the stability of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coalition and reveal the limits of his influence in key battleground states.
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Voting in Bihar will take place in two phases, on Thursday and next Tuesday, with results due next Friday. The outcome will not only decide Bihar’s leadership but could also set the tone for a series of key state polls next year in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
The outcome of each state election carries added significance for Modi’s BJP, which lost its outright majority in last year’s parliamentary polls and now relies heavily on regional allies – particularly Bihar’s influential Janata Dal United (JDU) led by Nitish Kumar.
A win for the BJP-JDU alliance would bolster Modi’s authority both within his party and its ideological parent, the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, while tightening his grip on national politics, according to analysts.
The BJP-led bloc is locked in a close contest with a rival alliance comprising the regional Rashtriya Janata Dal, headed by rising political figure Tejashwi Yadav, and the main national opposition party, the Indian National Congress.
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