An American demographer has stirred a debate with an article arguing that China’s plans to delay its retirement age are futile, and that only a massive influx of foreign immigrants could address the nation’s demographic woes.
The move could help China mitigate the trend of an ageing and declining population, Dudley L. Poston Jnr, a professor of sociology at Texas A&M University, said in an article published earlier this month on The Conversation.
However, Chinese demographers cautioned that there is no quick fix to the complex and deep-seated challenges facing China’s massive and ageing population, and that more comprehensive strategies are needed to navigate the looming crisis.
“Raising the retirement age will not help China slow the population decline, and it will have only a marginal effect on the ratio between working adults and post-working age adults,” said Poston Jnr on the platform, which is a publisher of research-based news and analysis via a collaboration between academics and journalists.
“If an active immigration policy is not implemented, by the beginning of the next century, China will be half as large as it is today and will be one of the oldest countries – if not the oldest country – in the world.”
Last month, China’s ruling elite said it wanted to raise the retirement age in a “voluntary and flexible” manner.
Without the influx of a young immigrant workforce, the problems China faces will be far worse
China’s retirement ages, which were first set about 70 years ago, stand at 60 for men, 55 for female office workers and 50 for female blue-collar workers.
However, as life expectancy has risen to 77 compared to 35 in 1949, when the People’s Republic was founded, China has been mulling over delaying retirement, to not only fully tap into its human capital, but to also alleviate pressure on the pension system.
Last year, China’s population dropped for the second year in a row, falling by 2.08 million to 1.4097 billion.
Only 9.02 million births were also reported in China last year, representing the lowest since records began in 1949.
Despite a spate of government policies to encourage births, young adults in China remain reluctant to engage in family planning.
The proposal to delay the retirement age, which was included in a document that revealed the decisions taken during the third plenum, was not mainly designed to increase the labour force, said Yuan Xin, vice-president of the China Population Association and a professor of demography at Nankai University in Tianjin.
Yuan added that it was rather to promote the value and expertise of workers, as people in China are remaining in education longer, resulting in a shorter working life under the current retirement framework.
“From another perspective, as our society enters an era of technological, digital and intelligent advancement, the replacement of labour by technology is evident,” Yuan said.
“So while labour may be scarce, it is not necessarily in short supply – China does not lack people or a workforce. Even with the population decline, China’s vast population size remains a defining feature of our modernisation.
“Imagine how China could possibly rely on immigration to solve its demographic issues when its 1.41 billion people make up 17 to 18 per cent of the world’s population?”
Yuan added that an enormous number of migrants would be required to correct China’s population size and structure, and immigration is feasible but it must be talent that contributes to China’s modernisation efforts.
“Without the influx of a young immigrant workforce, the problems China faces will be far worse,” added Poston Jnr.
He also pointed out that many other major economies with low fertility rates rely on migrates for young workers, and China that has a significantly lower rate of foreign-born residents at 0.1 per cent, compared to almost 18 per cent in Germany, 14 per cent in the United States, and even 2 per cent in Japan and 3.7 per cent in South Korea.
