After days of intense hostilities, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire, with US President Donald Trump claiming credit for the still-fragile agreement to halt military action along The Line of Control that divides Indian- and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
Advertisement
The latest episode began on April 22, when a terrorist attack killed 26 civilians in Indian-administered Pahalgam, prompting New Delhi to announce Operation Sindoor on May 6 to target terrorist camps in Pakistani territory. Pakistan, naturally, responded with counterstrikes. What unfolded from May 6-10 brought the world a step closer to nuclear war.
But the dynamics of the escalation were particularly shaped by both militaries’ use of and reliance on missiles, drones – including loitering munitions, so called because they loiter overhead until an opportunity presents for the kill – and related technologies. It was also the first conflict to showcase the use of Chinese, American, Russian and French weapons systems.
The use of these technologically advanced weapons incentivised limited action, giving rise to tit-for-tat action and a protracted crisis, while simultaneously creating an environment where both sides alluded to being constrained in their military responses.
In other words, the conflict highlighted the restraint-escalation paradox. To understand how emerging and disruptive technologies allowed for kinetic action and restraint at the same time, it’s important to uncover what exactly the Indian and Pakistani militaries used.
Advertisement
Telltale signs first appeared in the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis, when both countries used beyond-visual-range (BVR) capabilities in precision-guided munitions and air-to-air missiles. Between then and now, however, new BVR capabilities and stand-off systems – which allow weapons to be launched from afar – have transformed the long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan, allowing it to teeter at dangerous levels.