As authorities hunt controversial Philippine evangelist Apollo Quiboloy, analysts believe former president Rodrigo Duterte and his family may face obstacles in next year’s midterm elections due to the longstanding ties between the two men.
Duterte had named Quiboloy as his spiritual adviser during his time in office. The father of Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio continues to show support for the pastor, condemning the current Philippine administration for “demonising” Quiboloy, who faces human trafficking and fraud allegations.
Family members from the Duterte clan are expected to run for Senate seats in next year’s race, amid rising animosity between Duterte-Carpio and her former ally President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr.
Analysts say the ongoing hunt for Quiboloy is another sign of the “deterioration of the erstwhile civil relations” between the Duterte and Marcos camps.
On August 7, a Philippine court ordered the freezing of assets of Quiboloy and nine of his associates, as well as those of the Kingdom of Jesus Christ (KOJC), his media company Sonshine Media Network International (SMNI), and his charity Children’s Joy Foundation, Inc.
Authorities again served warrants of arrest for child abuse, sexual abuse and human trafficking charges against Quiboloy and several of his associates at the KOJC compound in Davao City on Friday. Quiboloy was nowhere to be found on the sprawling 30-hectare property.
Jan Robert Go, associate professor at the University of the Philippines’ political science department, told This Week in Asia: “With the breakdown of the Marcos-Duterte alliance, Quiboloy could be one of the casualties.”
Maria Ela Atienza, also a political science professor from the University of the Philippines, said efforts to preserve the so-called UniTeam – the alliance between Marcos Jnr and Duterte-Carpio in the 2022 elections – have shielded Quiboloy from arrests before the coalition broke down.
“Now, because the UniTeam is no more, the political motivations of the Marcos administration and his allies, combined with the decreasing influence of the Dutertes as well as more vocal public support and awareness are combining to put pressure on the justice system to do what it is supposed to do,” Atienza said.
Police first delivered arrest warrants for Quiboloy on June 10, where they faced resistance from church members who sprayed water cannons on the officers.
Duterte had criticised the operation as “an overkill”, adding that he was “constrained to take action” against those responsible for the “coordinated but illegal raid” after having been named administrator of KOJC’s properties in March.
A church official reiterated Duterte’s statement at a Senate hearing on the June 10 operation on Monday, where the former president accused the Marcos administration of “demonising [Quiboloy] before he could be convicted by a court of law” to “divert attention from the deepening crises pawned by corruption, incompetence, and abuse of authority.”
More than politics
Analysts say the search for Quiboloy should not be seen as political persecution, with the pastor facing serious charges in the US and Philippine courts.
Quiboloy should have been “brought to justice years ago” if he was guilty of the allegations against him, said Atienza, adding that the pastor was shielded from the law due to his close ties with Duterte.
The United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) released wanted posters of Quiboloy for charges related to sex trafficking, labour trafficking, and cash smuggling in 2022 when Duterte was still president.
While Marcos Jnr wanted to bolster his support from Filipinos ahead of next year’s polls, he also needed to show the public and overseas critics of the Philippines’ human rights record that the justice system was working, Atienza said.
Go from the University of the Philippines said there were “legitimate concerns surrounding Quiboloy” due to the sexual abuse allegations and the FBI case against him.
Quiboloy previously said he would surrender to Philippine authorities if the government would assure him that the US would not interfere in his cases. Marcos Jnr assured the pastor would be treated fairly and the authorities would “exercise all compassion” towards him.
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Although Duterte’s lingering appeal has shielded him from controversies, his close association with Quiboloy might be the wedge that affects support for him and his allies in the 2025 midterm elections, analysts say.
Defence analyst V.K. Parada said Duterte’s ties to Quiboloy called the pastor “a weak point in terms of the Duterte dynasty’s enduring public support”.
Go said it was too early to say how Duterte’s influence would be felt during next year’s polls. “If Duterte will use his textbook strategies, people might not take the bait anymore.”
The Marcos administration could capitalise on the hunt for Quiboloy and undermine remaining public support for the Duterte camp, according to observers.
Gary Ador Dionisio, dean of the De La Salle – College of Saint Benilde’s School of Diplomacy and Governance, said Quiboloy’s capture would be “a big blow” against the Dutertes.
Marcos Jnr appeared to have been boosted by the efforts to capture Quiboloy as his approval ratings recently rose for the first time in months, Dionisio added.
While public support for Marcos Jnr increased, it fell for Duterte-Carpio, according to the June surveys from polling firms Social Weather Station and Octa.
Marcos Jnr’s stance on the pastor’s arrest, his strong positions on other issues such as the South China Sea dispute and Philippine offshore gaming operators, and the “bloodless” approach to the war against drugs, have bolstered his popularity, Dionisio said.
“The positive results can be interpreted as due to the breakaway policies of [Marcos Jnr] from his predecessor, [Duterte].”
“If these campaigns will be amplified by the Marcos administration … then [there could be a tilt] in favour of Marcos candidates come midterm elections,” Dionisio said.
Parada said it remained to be seen if Quiboloy might have information that could implicate the former president and his family.
He added: “The bottom line is that Duterte recognises Quiboloy as a potential Achilles’ heel.”
