Voters will decide on the nation’s first statewide program that would give each resident $1,600 a year, as well as unionizing thousands of cannabis workers.
Oregonians will decide on five ballot measures, including whether to enact the nation’s first statewide Universal Basic Income (UBI) program and adopt ranked-choice voting in federal elections and most state elections.
Polling from the progressive think tank Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) provides insight into how voters feel about them.
The nonprofit said it worked with Public Policy Polling to survey 716 likely voters on Oct. 16 and 17. Respondents were contacted via phone and text. The results have a margin of error of 3.7 percent and a 95 percent confidence interval.
Measure 118: Universal Basic Income
The controversial measure would give every resident—regardless of age, income, or citizenship, including those who are incarcerated—$1,600 each year as long as they live at least 200 days in the state.
A family of four would receive $6,400 annually, with no strings attached. The money would be non-taxable and would not affect other benefits.
If voters approve, Ballot Measure 118 would be funded by a 3 percent tax on the gross receipts of corporations that generate more than $25 million in annual sales.
Proponents claim that UBI will “force giant corporations to pay their fair share in taxes, and put that money directly into people’s pockets.”
But the proposal, known as the Oregon People’s Rebate, is meeting with pushback from the business community as well as stiff bipartisan resistance from elected officials. Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek said it would “punch a huge hole” in the state’s budget and put “essential services for low-wage and working families at risk.”
According to the Legislative Revenue Office’s estimate of financial impact, the measure would create a substantial budget shortfall, shrinking the state’s general fund by as much as $2 billion per year within five years.
In a state facing a severe housing shortage, corporate taxes on construction would soar 1,064 percent if the measure is passed, according to a Tax Foundation analysis. Taxes on utilities would skyrocket by 1,901 percent. Health-care taxes would multiply more than eight times the current levels, and transportation would see an almost five-fold increase.
“Measure 118 is on track to fail,” according to NPI, with an “outright majority of respondents saying they will vote no.”
NPI noted that left-leaning organizations, including the Oregon Working Families Party, Democratic Socialists of Eugene, and Laborers’ International Union of North America, revoked their support after more analysis was done.
Measure 117: Ranked Choice Voting
Ballot Measure 117 would require Oregon counties to adopt ranked-choice voting (RCV) for federal elections and statewide elections of Oregon officials, excluding legislators.
It is the first RCV statewide ballot measure to be referred by a state legislature. If enacted, Oregon would be the third state in the nation to try RCV, following Maine in 2016 and Alaska in 2020.
Alaska residents, unhappy with the first use of the method in 2022, will be voting on a measure to repeal RCV on Nov. 5.
Like most states, Oregon now uses plurality voting, in which the candidate who gets the most votes wins. Candidates do not need to get a majority to win.
In RCV elections, voters rank candidates from most to least preferred. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the first-choice votes in the first round, vote tabulation moves to round two. The candidate with the least number of first-choice votes is removed, and his or her votes are reallocated to the candidate who was the second choice on those ballots. The process continues until a candidate achieves a majority.
Proponents say RCV increases voter and candidate participation, moderates partisanship, and reduces wasted votes. Opponents worry that RCV is costly, complicated, and hard for voters to understand. Consequently, they said that it inhibits voter participation and leads to ballot errors.
The measure is endorsed by Oregon Democratic Rep. Val Hoyle, who is defending her seat in Congressional District 4, and state Rep. Dan Rayfield, who is a candidate for Oregon Attorney General, as well as the Democratic Party of Oregon.
NPI described the decision on Measure 117 as “very uncertain,” with 41 percent of survey participants supporting the measure, 40 percent opposing, and 20 percent undecided.
“When a measure falls below fifty percent at any juncture in the campaign, that’s not a good sign for the proponents,” NPI said, because measures often lose support over the course of a campaign, and undecided voters could break against measures.
“It is possible for undecided voters to break yes, and our team has seen it happen, it’s just not as common,” according to NPI.
Polling Other Measures
Oregon is the only state in which lawmakers cannot impeach statewide office holders. In the past decade, two elected officials have left office amid a scandal but only as a result of public pressure.
Ballot Measure 115, which would amend the Oregon Constitution to provide impeachment powers, seems likely to pass, according to the survey.
Fifty-three percent of those polled said they plan to vote yes, 24 percent said they plan to vote no, and 22 percent were undecided.
Measure 116, which would create a committee that would set salaries for legislators, statewide elected officials, judges, and district attorneys, is more likely to pass than to fail, with 49 percent of respondents indicating they plan to vote yes, 26 percent saying they plan to vote no and 25 percent undecided, according to the survey.
Measure 119, which would allow the state’s nearly 7,700 cannabis workers to unionize, also looks likely to pass, with 49 percent of respondents saying they would vote yes, 29 percent saying no, and 23 percent unsure.
Backers of that measure say it will protect workers from safety concerns including exposure to toxic chemicals and lack of proper protective equipment. Because some employees are now paid in product instead of money, the measure also would help keep black market marijuana off the streets by enforcing actual wages.
The Taxpayers Association of Oregon opposes the measure, saying that it would likely cause labor costs to spike and give more power to illegal street drug dealers.