Some forecast models see a tropical system crossing into the Gulf of Mexico by Nov. 6, but it’s not expected to affect the U.S. election.
There is one more month left of hurricane season, and chances are that at least one more named storm may form.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching two low-pressure systems in the Caribbean that have a chance of developing within the next seven days.
A system off Panama has a 70 percent chance of developing by next Friday, and a 30 percent chance within the next 48 hours.
“A tropical depression is likely to form later this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea,” the NHC stated in its afternoon update on Nov. 1.
Forecast models expect a tropical system to cross into the Gulf of Mexico by Nov. 6. However, it is still too soon to tell how strong this storm will be or where it will go. It does not appear that any states will be affected on Election Day, Nov. 5.
While November hurricanes are less common than those in September or October, named storms developed less than a week after an election in 1912, 1916, 1924, 1948, 1964, 1980, 1996, and 2008.
A second low-pressure system was last spotted just north of Puerto Rico, with only a 10 percent chance of developing in the next seven days, and a third low-pressure system is being tracked in the North Atlantic, a few hundred miles west of the Azores.
That third system is given a 40 percent chance of developing in the next 48 hours as it moves eastward. The NHC stated that the system “has been producing increased convection near its center over the past few hours,” and satellite-derived wind data has depicted storm-force winds to the south of the center.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 season would have 17 to 24 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), with eight to 13 of them being hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and four to seven becoming Category 3 or stronger, in its Aug. 4 report.
As of Nov. 1, the 2024 season has produced 15 named storms, 10 of which became hurricanes. Five of those hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S.: Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene, and Milton.
Hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.