‘Odd’ data: why Indonesia’s growth numbers are raising eyebrows

Indonesia’s better-than-expected economic growth for the second quarter has raised eyebrows among some academics, who have questioned if the headline number reflects what they say is a slowdown on the ground.

Gross domestic product in Southeast Asia’s largest economy grew by 5.12 per cent in the April-June period, according to the country’s statistics agency, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) – a rise from 4.87 per cent in the first quarter.

BPS, which released the data on August 5, said the growth was sustained by domestic consumption, which increased by 4.97 per cent year on year, as well as by manufacturing investment, which grew by 6.99 per cent, the highest rise since the second quarter of 2021. The manufacturing industry grew by 5.68 per cent year on year, according to BPS.

It said that household spending contributed to 54.25 per cent of Indonesia’s GDP in the second quarter.

The announced figures were higher than market forecasts of around 4.8 per cent, as initially polled by Reuters.

Jakarta-based think tank the Centre of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) described the official economic statistics as “odd” and said it had filed a request to the UN Statistics Division and Statistical Commission on Friday to “launch a technical diagnostic review of Indonesia’s GDP calculation framework, with particular attention to anomalies in Q2 2025 reporting”.