Despite COVID-19 demonstrating its unpreparedness New Zealand has still not updated its 20-year-old pandemic plan, and is at risk of not having enough vaccines.
The Auditor General has warned that New Zealand’s Ministry of Health is still relying on a pandemic plan that was shown to be inadequate when COVID-19 struck in 2020.
While there has been sporadic progress in implementing the recommendations his office made at that time, there is still a significant risk of the country not having enough supplies of antivirals or vaccines if another pandemic were to strike.
In a letter to Parliament’s Health Committee, John Ryan warned that New Zealand is in danger of slipping into a cycle of “panic, then forget” when it comes to handling major national health challenges.
“We made 10 recommendations to address the issues we identified. The Ministry accepted the recommendations and said it anticipated implementing changes by the end of 2020/21,” he noted.
While the sourcing, management, and distribution of personal protective equipment (PPE) had improved thanks to the previous government’s decision to abolish local health boards and centralise delivery under Health NZ, the auditor general said that “progress has not been consistent.”
This includes the need to update national plans and modelling to determine how much stock should be held in the national reserve stocks and who should have access to it.
“The ministry attributes slow progress to the health sector reforms and, more recently, to reduced staff numbers,” the letter said.In addition to PPE such as masks, gowns, and gloves, the national reserve stocks include antivirals such as Tamiflu and Relenza, and pre-pandemic vaccines such as the H5N1 “bird flu” vaccine, which the government has held since 2006.
Despite centralised purchasing and distribution, over $55 million worth of national reserves stock supplies were written off in 2023/24, including approximately $2 million in expired vaccine stock.
Ryan wrote that some of the failings during the COVID response happened because previous reviews of the plan had not been implemented.
“Further work is needed to address the recommendations from our 2020 report and to give the public assurance that New Zealand holds sufficient reserves for future emergencies,” he emphasised.
Vaccine stock levels were still based on pandemic modelling and health workforce numbers from 2005, yet New Zealand’s population and health workforce have changed considerably since then.
“For these reasons, there is a risk that there are insufficient antiviral or vaccine supplies to cover the current health workforce or the other people eligible,” he said.
The second phase of the NZ Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 is not due to report until February 2026, and the ministry has been holding off on some decisions until then, the Auditor General was told.
“In our view, the Ministry needs to complete the modelling work with some urgency so that we can all be assured that there are sufficient vaccine and antiviral supplies,” the letter concludes.