When the US bombed Iran’s nuclear sites last month, Washington may have inadvertently sent Pyongyang the clearest signal yet that relinquishing its nuclear arsenal could expose North Korea to the very attacks it aims to avoid.
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Political analysts say Washington’s hardline approach to Iran’s uranium enrichment has only cemented the North Korean leadership’s deep-seated conviction that nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent. Compounding this, as Pyongyang has forged closer strategic bonds with Russia, it now seemingly perceives any dialogue with the United States less as an overture for peace and more as a thinly veiled pretext for military action.
“Having seen US bombers target Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, North Korea may see premature talks as a trap – just another excuse for Washington to accuse it of insincerity and justify a strike,” Hong Min, senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), told This Week in Asia.
“Denuclearisation appears to be off the table for good. What the North might consider is arms control negotiations, under the condition that it is accepted as a nuclear state.”
North Korea is likely to lean more on its nuclear deterrent while drawing closer to Moscow, said Lim Eul-chul, a professor specialising in North Korean studies at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies.
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“North Korea will likely focus on easing sanctions pressure by bolstering its strategic partnership with Russia, all while enhancing its nuclear and missile capabilities,” Lim said. “At the same time, it will continue to carefully monitor US intentions.”
Victor Cha, president of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) geopolitics and foreign policy department, said the attacks on Iran might have reinforced North Korea’s belief that nuclear armament was the correct path.