A series of events stemming from Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s recent State of the Nation Address (SONA) look like the final nail in the coffin for his family’s partnership with the influential clan of former President Rodrigo Duterte.
Observers said the so-called UniTeam alliance formed between Marcos and Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio – the daughter of the former president – during the 2022 election has been completely dissolved, as evidenced by the latter’s decision not to attend the SONA on July 22.
“There is definitely no more UniTeam,” Maria Ela Atienza, a University of the Philippines political science professor, told This Week in Asia, adding that both the president and vice-president “can no longer diplomatically state that it is business as usual”.
While the feud between the two politically powerful families has been escalating for months, Marcos and Duterte-Carpio had been playing down the tensions in public.
“The SONA was a clear indicator that the Dutertes and their solid supporters have departed the coalition. But this is not really surprising, given the temporary nature of many alliances in Philippine politics,” Jan Robert Go, associate professor of the University of the Philippines’ political science department, told This Week in Asia.
The total dissolution of their alliance has significant implication for the country’s future, as both families are now attempting to strengthen their own political coalitions ahead of the 2025 midterm elections, often through attacks on the other side.
Deepfakes and security details
Observers said events that have taken place since the SONA show that the gloves have come off when it comes to two families’ feud.
Shortly before Marcos’ speech to the nation, a video was released by a group of Duterte supporters during a rally in the United States purporting to show Marcos doing drugs. Authorities have dismissed the clip as a “malicious” deepfake.
While the video has not been directly attributed to the family of the former president, analysts said it “fell within the Duterte play book of attacking critics”.
“As we recall from the time Duterte was president, they circulated fake videos, fake photos, fake news, and fake stories to attack critics like Leila De Lima, former vice-president Leni Robredo, and Senator [Antonio] Trillanes,” Atienza said.
“Whether or not it was sanctioned, it was clear that it supports the narrative of the older Duterte. In fact, when this became viral online, the supporters of Duterte came flocking and celebrating the ‘near downfall’ of Marcos Jnr,” Go said.
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What’s behind the apparent feud between the Marcos, Duterte clans in the Philippines?
What’s behind the apparent feud between the Marcos, Duterte clans in the Philippines?
Both Marcos and Duterte have publicly accused the other of being a drug user in recent months as part of their escalating war of words.
Last week following the SONA, the Philippine National Police (PNP) recalled 75 officers assigned to Duterte-Carpio’s security detail, a move PNP chief Rommel Marbil justified in a radio interview by saying “we don’t see any threat against the vice-president”.
The vice-president decried the move as “political harassment” and publicly pleaded for more security to protect her family. She cited a photo surreptitiously taken of them at Manila’s airport recently as an example of the threats they face.
That photo was the cause of another controversy, since it revealed that Duterte-Carpio and her family had left the country for Germany at the height of typhoon Gaemi on July 25, which left 39 dead.
Will Marcos play his ICC ‘ace’?
On Monday, Secretary of Justice Menardo Guevarra said the government “will not get in the way” of the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation into the Duterte administration’s bloody war on drugs, under which Senator Ronald dela Rosa – who had served as Duterte’s police chief from 2016 to 2018 – was recently named one of five suspects.
Guevara’s statement is a different tune from the administration’s stance months prior, when Marcos said that the Philippines would not assist the ICC in its investigation.
Atienza called the ICC card “among the aces of the Marcos administration against the Dutertes”.
“If the attacks of the Dutertes will not lessen, the administration can definitely threaten the Dutertes and their allies with closer cooperation with the ICC,” Atienza said.
With recent public opinion surveys showing Marcos’ public approval ratings in a slump, observers said that the administration will have to double down on two of its most popular stances to win over public opinion.
One of those is Marcos’ policy of confronting Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea, Manila’s terms for the portion of the South China Sea that lies within its exclusive economic zone. The other is banning Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (Pogos), which were legalised under Duterte’s administration and have frequently been linked to crimes like scams and human trafficking.
“However, this requires actual and sustained implementation and action. The president needs to fulfil his promises and pronouncements. At the same time, he and his administration need to have substantial impact on areas that are closer to Filipinos, such as poverty, hunger, inflation, and jobs,” Atienza said.
Go said that the narrative the Marcos administration was building on these two issues could work to its advantage.
“The Dutertes may be masters of courting public opinion, but the issues of the West Philippine Sea and Pogos worsened during Rodrigo’s term. If anything, the narrative of Marcos is ‘we are cleaning your mess.’ If Marcos can sustain the attention on these agenda, then it could tilt the scale against the Dutertes,” Go said.
With Duterte-Carpio disengaging from the administration after resigning from her position as education secretary, many believe the Duterte clan is consolidating its forces and supporters for a political comeback in the 2025 elections.
Duterte-Carpio previously announced her father and brothers were all planning to run for Senate seats in next year’s race, though there have been doubts about whether they will actually follow through.
“Right now, there is uncertainty. Dutertes are known to play on the emotions of the public. When they so desire, they will all declare candidacies or delay their proclamation,” Go said.
He said the Duterte clan needs to think about their actions carefully, following the break-up of the UniTeam.
“There is what we call political fatigue that may affect the electorate when this becomes their norm, or when everyone in the family decides to run. There is no charisma that does not fade. There is no popularity that does not wane,” he said.
