China and Russia might expand military cooperation but they are unlikely to pursue direct confrontation with the US given the potential cost, according to a report from a Washington-based defence advisory institute.
The Rand Corporation report, “Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation”, suggested that Beijing and Moscow might eventually work together to launch a “combined military operation” but the possibility “remains uncertain at best”.
The report, which was released on Wednesday, said deeper integration between the two would likely result in more complex and more frequent training and exercises – interactions that would likely lead to greater technology and skills transfers and operations in new geographic areas or domains.
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But China and Russia would still likely be “well below” fully integrated partners, meaning they would not share strategic systems such as common command, control, intelligence, and surveillance systems.
The two countries’ coordination on use of nuclear weapons might also be overestimated as they had “significant cleavages” in using such a deterrence, the report said.
“At no point did Beijing pursue the type of vast and diverse arsenal that the United States and the Soviet Union possessed. It focused on maintaining a sufficient retaliatory capability and made clear that its core doctrine was one of ‘no first use’,” it added.
The authors of the report also suggested that the possibility of direct confrontation between the two powers and the US, either independently or as a coalition, remained low due to the likely cost, especially from China’s perspective.
Given that trying to sabotage Sino-Russia relations might be counterproductive, Washington should pursue “ever greater cooperation among its most important allies and partners”, they said.
“Efforts to break apart the Sino-Russian relationship are unlikely to succeed and may end up motivating both Russia and China to strengthen their ties,” the report said, adding the most effective way to counter the Russia-China strategic partnership was ensuring the health of the US’ own alliances.
China and Russia are consolidating their partnership despite pressure from the West over the Ukraine war and tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
The West has repeatedly expressed concerns over China’s indirect support of Russia’s economy and arms production, but China has repeatedly denied supplying any weapons to Russia used directly in the invasion of Ukraine.
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However, the Centre for Advanced Defence Studies, a Washington-based think tank, said Russia was seeking to buy older, Western-made machine tools from Chinese companies to make weapons.
The two countries have also mounted joint naval and air drills in waters claimed by China, mostly in the East China Sea.
Last year, the they conducted joint air force patrols over the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan, the sixth under the annual cooperation plan between the two militaries since 2019. The latest joint drill prompted South Korea and Japan to scramble aircraft.
The two also began joint naval drills in the East China Sea in 2022, the closest they have been held to the Taiwan Strait since the annual war games began more than a decade ago.
