Lancet study estimates Gaza death toll 40 per cent higher than recorded

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the war between Israel and Hamas was around 40 per cent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory’s health ministry.

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The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group’s unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time.

Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip. Photo: Reuters
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip. Photo: Reuters

The study’s best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 per cent.

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