With the start of the 119th Congress just a day away, Johnson can only afford to lose one Republican vote in the speaker election.
WASHINGTON—With the start of the 119th Congress just a day away, for some lawmakers, the impending speaker fight feels like deja vu.
On Jan. 3, the newly-elected Congress will gather in Washington, and its first order of business will be to elect the House speaker.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is currently favored to keep the job, but with GOP criticism mounting, the ultimate outcome remains uncertain. The situation is reminiscent of two years ago, when it took 15 ballots and five days for Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to be named speaker—due in part to Republicans’ narrow majority at the time.
After the 2024 election, Republicans will maintain their narrow majority in the lower congressional chamber with 219 seats—just one above the 218-vote majority threshold of a full House.
Therefore, Johnson can only afford to lose one Republican, as no Democrats are expected to support his bid to keep the gavel.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told MSNBC that “there will be no Democrats available to save him.”
Already one Republican has vowed to oppose Johnson’s speaker bid: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.).
“Mike Johnson is the next Paul Ryan,” Massie wrote on X on Dec. 30.
Ryan was the speaker during President Donald Trump’s first two years in office.
Massie criticized Ryan on what he called a “fake repeal of Obamacare” as the GOP effort in 2017 to undo the landmark health care bill failed. He also decried increased spending and the failure to fund a wall along the southern border on Ryan’s watch.
“On January 3rd, 2025, I won’t be voting for Mike Johnson,” Massie said in the X post.
“I hope my colleague will join me because history will not give America another ‘do-over.’”
Some other Republicans are undecided.
“I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues, because we saw so many of the failures last year that we are concerned about that might limit or inhibit our ability to advance the president’s agenda,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told Fox Business on Dec. 31.
“I haven’t publicly or privately committed yet,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) told Fox News on Dec. 30. “I do want to speak with the speaker just to see what his plans are, because there are some issues that I think need to be worked out, specifically dealing with the budget issues.”
Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), chairman of the influential and conservative House Freedom Caucus, is undecided, his spokesperson, Anna Adamian, told The Epoch Times on Dec. 31.
The House Freedom Caucus is set to meet on Jan. 2 to determine how it will proceed when it comes to the speaker race, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told The Epoch Times.
Harris’s stance has shifted. He had previously said he planned to support Johnson for speaker.
“He’s delivering on what he said he was going to deliver,” Harris told The Epoch Times in November. “And I think that if he continues to deliver on that, that it won’t be an issue.”
Harris’s comments came before Johnson last month introduced a bill, or a continuing resolution (CR), to fund the government at current levels through March 14.
Harris opposed the bill. Republican criticisms ranged from there being a CR in the first place to legislation not relevant to funding the government being tacked onto the bill.
Democrats decried what they said was Johnson reneging on an initial agreement that was torpedoed by Trump and entrepreneur Elon Musk.
Trump gave his “complete and total endorsement” of Johnson for speaker.
“The American people need IMMEDIATE relief from all of the destructive policies of the last administration. Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
If there were to be a speaker battle, Congress’s certification of Trump’s 2024 election win—to take place on Jan. 6—could be delayed, as the House cannot do any business until a speaker is elected.
Johnson’s predecessor, McCarthy, did not win the gavel until Jan. 7, 2023, five voting days after the commencement of the 118th Congress. This was after 15 rounds of voting and multiple concessions made by McCarthy to hardline conservatives.
McCarthy was ousted nine months later, becoming the first speaker to be stripped of the gavel.
The ouster resulted in a three-week battle to choose McCarthy’s replacement, which eventually resulted in Johnson, who was then vice chair of the House GOP, being elevated to the position that’s second in line to the presidency.