Japan’s National Police Agency has ordered local police headquarters across the country to tighten security around politicians, foreign dignitaries and other high-profile individuals, following the assassination bid in the United States on Donald Trump at a campaign rally.
The shooting of Trump at a rally in the rural town of Butler in west Pennsylvania echoed a chilling incident in Japan two years ago, when a lone gunman shot and killed former prime minister Shinzo Abe as he addressed a crowd in Nara ahead of nationwide elections.
While Trump and Abe represent the conservative parties in their respective countries and were reported to be close political allies, analysts suggest it is too soon to reach conclusions on the parallels between the two attacks.
“We should not try to compare the two incidents, at least until we find out the motive of the US attacker,” said Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo.
“The man who shot and killed Abe had complex reasons and it was less of a political attack than personal,” he told This Week in Asia. “With the Trump shooting, we just do not know enough yet. His motivation might have been political, it might have been personal, it could have been the result of mental illness.
“We should not speculate until the dust settles, although I am sure that politicians around the world are going to be paying more attention to their personal security from now on.”
The suspect in the Trump attack has been identified by the FBI as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, who was from Bethel Park, an hour south of Butler, and worked in a care home. Police told US media that he was registered as a Republican but had made a donation of US$15 in the past to a Democratic Party support group.
The weapon used in the attack had been legally purchased by his father. As well as injuring Trump with the volley of shots, Crooks killed an onlooker at the rally and injured two other people. Secret Service snipers shot him dead on the roof of a building overlooking the rally site.
An investigation is expected to determine why Crooks did not raise any red flags with law enforcement agencies and how he was able to get close enough to the Republican Party’s likely presidential candidate to come so close to killing him.
The incident has clearly shaken authorities in Japan, with the national police agency instructing prefectural police to ensure safety within and outside venues that are being used by speakers. Local headquarters were also told to make sure that countermeasures announced after the killing of Abe on July 8, 2022, have been implemented.
Plainclothes officers protecting the prime minister as he spoke on a street corner in Nara were widely criticised after the attack for failing to stop the shooter, Tetsuya Yamagami, from approaching from the rear. A former member of the Self-Defence Forces, 41-year-old Yamagami had constructed a rudimentary firearm that he used to shoot Abe with.
Psychologists in June declared that Yamagami was mentally competent to stand trial. He has reportedly told police that he decided to shoot Abe as he believed he supported the Unification Church. Yamagami said the religious organisation, originally from South Korea, had bankrupted his family after convincing his mother to make huge donations.
Despite heightened security around politicians in the immediate aftermath of Abe’s death, a man was able to get close to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as he campaigned in Wakayama prefecture, central Japan, in April last year to hurl an explosive device. One police officer sustained minor injuries. The assailant was arrested but has refused to answer questions from the police.
“I think we can say that we are seeing more and more of those sorts of political violence cases involving individuals acting on their own rather than as an organised group,” Hinata-Yamaguchi said.
“Before the killing of Abe, we seem to have had quite a long time of relative peace, but now the authorities have to adapt to new types of political violence.”
A solo actor who does not hint at his plans or communicate electronically with fellow conspirators is extremely difficult for law enforcement agencies to identify and track, Hinata-Yamaguchi emphasised.
“It is hard to say if an attack like this might inspire copycat attacks elsewhere, but it is certainly possible. On the other hand, it will also raise security levels around anyone who is seen as a potential target,” he said.
“But whatever happens now, politicians everywhere are going to be much more alert to the threats they face, and the authorities are going to be looking to devise new solutions based on everything they learn from this attack.”
On Sunday, Kishida said in a post on X that he was praying for Trump’s well-being.
“We must stand firmly against violence that challenges democracy,” he said. “I wish for Mr Trump’s speedy recovery.”
