Japan Faces Uncertainty as Ruling Bloc Loses Majority for First Time Since 2009

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that voters have delivered a ‘harsh verdict’ on the Liberal Democratic Party.

Japan was plunged into political uncertainty on Oct. 27 after snap elections saw the ruling coalition led by new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in 15 years.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner, Komeito, secured 215 seats in the 465-seat lower house, falling short of the 233 needed for a majority, according to public broadcaster NHK.

The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), gained a significant increase by winning 148 seats, up from the previous 98.

The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) gained 28 seats, while the Japan Innovation Party—also referred to as Nippon Ishin no Kai—secured 38 seats, according to local news outlet The Asahi Shimbun.

It is a major blow for Ishiba, who now faces the difficult task of finding a third coalition partner in order to form a majority.

Leaders of the DPP and the Japan Innovation Party have expressed their opposition to joining the LDP-led coalition. DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki said his party would instead be open to “policy-by-policy” cooperation.

Ishiba told NHK on Oct. 27 that voters delivered a “harsh verdict” on the LDP and that the polls indicated the people’s desire for the party to “reflect what we have done” and make changes.

“We may get [a] tough verdict from the public again in the Upper House election, so we have to take it seriously and we need to launch the political reform headquarters immediately,” he said.

The yen dropped to a three-month low against the U.S. dollar on Oct. 28, declining by 1 percent to 153.88 per dollar in the Asia session, following LDP’s failure to secure a majority.

Ishiba called for snap elections after being elected on Oct. 1 to replace Fumio Kishida, whose resignation was prompted by public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of rising inflation and a scandal related to political fundraising.

The LDP has ruled Japan for nearly all of its post-World War II history, and the recent election result marked the party’s worst election performance since it briefly lost power in 2009 to the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), a precursor to the CDPJ.

The DPJ’s handling of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, which severely impacted the Fukushima nuclear plant, led to the LDP winning the 2012 election under the leadership of Shinzo Abe. Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, was assassinated in 2022 after his tenure ended in 2020.

Ishiba has previously criticized some of Abe’s policies. In a 2018 interview with Japanese newspaper Mainichi Shimbun, he criticized the former prime minister for his tactics regarding the Northern Territories.

The Northern Territories are four islands off the coast of Hokkaido that were given to the Soviet Union—and inherited by Russia—after the end of World War II.

Abe sought to promote joint economic activities with Russia in the islands, but Ishiba said he never thought that such efforts would lead to Moscow’s return of the territories, a long-standing Japanese demand.

Following his election to the prime minister post, Ishiba pledged to revitalize consumption and boost household income through wage hikes. He also advocated the creation of an Asian version of NATO to deter China.

Chris Summers and Reuters contributed to this report.

 

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