Ukraine’s invitation to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to visit the country may be a sign that Kyiv is increasingly looking to Beijing for support, Chinese analysts said, but warned it remains to be seen how far the warring sides are willing to engage.
During his visit to China last week – his first since the war started in February 2022 – Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Wang that the country was happy to talk to Russia if Moscow was acting in “good faith”.
Wang Yiwei, a Europe specialist at Renmin University, said it would be “good timing” for Wang to visit amid what he called a “softening” in the stance of Ukraine and its Western supporters.
According to Wang, the possible return to the White House by Donald Trump – who has boasted that he can end the war within 24 hours if he wins the upcoming US presidential election – and the increased presence in the European Parliament of right-wing politicians who oppose further help for Ukraine have raised questions about how far international support for Kyiv will continue.
Wang said President Volodymyr Zelensky is worried “that Ukraine could be ‘sacrificed’ by the West”. He added: “Even Europe now hopes China will play a greater role in mediating … China also sees the urgency and is willing to do its work.”
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Ukraine says it’s ready to resume ‘good faith’ negotiations with Russia
Ukraine says it’s ready to resume ‘good faith’ negotiations with Russia
Wang Yiwei said it was possible that a trip by China’s foreign minister could pave the way for Zelensky to meet Xi Jinping – most probably at an international gathering such as this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru or the G20 meeting in Brazil.
The Chinese leader has met Vladimir Putin several times since the start of the war, vowing to deepen cooperation with Russia, but has only spoken to Zelensky once by phone in that period.
The invitation to the Chinese foreign minister comes after a series of senior political figures, including US President Joe Biden, have already made the trip to Ukraine.
Wang Yiwei said China could also push for an invitation for Russia to attend the G20 meeting, possibly paving the way for direct communications between Putin and some Western leaders.
China’s special envoy on Eurasian Affairs, Li Hui, is on a fourth peace tour to Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia, seeking to gather support for a six-point plan China and Brazil released in May calling for negotiations and ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
During her visit to China last week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said China could become a “key player” in the peace talks, but warned that Beijing’s close economic ties with Russia were a source of “great friction”.
Zelensky also described Beijing as a “key player” in an interview on Tuesday with French media outlets, including Agence France-Presse. However he stressed that he did not want it to act as a mediator but rather to pressure Russia.
“If China wants, it can force Russia to end this war,” he said.
Victor Gao, vice-president of the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation, said he did not see an “absolute need” for Wang Yi to visit Ukraine and could instead offer to host closed-door talks if the warring sides were willing to talk.
He said Ukraine may prefer to start these talks soon as it might have “less flexibility” to make “independent” decisions if Trump returned to the White House.
“China has successfully mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and between the 14 factions in Palestine … but [their talks] were not made public before the results were announced,” said Gao, who is also a chair professor at Soochow University in eastern China.
“The key is what is the purpose of this meeting? China has always said its role will be very limited if the two sides [Ukraine and Russia] do not even want to talk.”
Wang Yi admitted in his meeting with Kuleba the time was “not yet ripe” for negotiations.
Russia has said it is open to talks to Ukraine if it agrees to conditions such as giving up on Nato membership and handing over four provinces Russia has tried to annex. Ukraine has rejected the conditions and says Russia must withdraw from all occupied territories.
When asked about Kuleba’s comments last week, a Kremlin spokesman said that more clarification and action from Ukraine was needed.
Wang from Renmin University said Moscow’s attitude was critical and it did not appear interested in talks just now.
“Any mediation would require coordination with Russia … it cannot be just unilaterally initiated by China,” he added.
