Population figures released by the Census Statistics Department this month show that Hong Kong’s population has risen by 0.1 per cent to just over 7.53 million, the third straight year it has increased. Our population size seems to be stabilising, unlike in Japan or mainland China, where populations are shrinking.
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However, upon examining the three key components of population growth – births, deaths and net migration – some trends require attention, despite a lack of discussion in the media.
Despite government measures such as the HK$20,000 (US$2,572) cash support for families with newborns, and 2024 being a dragon year, seen as auspicious for childbirth, the number of births increased to only 36,700 in 2024. This number is the third lowest since 1961.
The government spent HK$734 million on the childbirth handout last year. As the rise in population is partly attributed to the impact of a dragon year, this leads to questions about the cost-effectiveness of the handout.
It is possible that last year’s slight population increase may not continue into 2025 as historical birth data suggests a reduction in the year following the dragon year, as observed in the earlier periods of 1988 -1989, 2000-2001 and 2012-2013.
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Additionally, the decrease in marriages in Hong Kong indicates that the increasing number of births in 2024 may revert to a decreasing trend in 2025, further exacerbating the already low fertility rate and serious population ageing.
