India has overtaken Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy – and officials hope to pass Germany within three years, the government’s end-of-year economic review calculates.
Official confirmation however depends on data due in 2026 when final annual gross domestic product figures are released, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggesting India will cross over Japan next year.
“India is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies and is well-positioned to sustain this momentum,” read the government economic briefing note, which was released late on Monday.
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“With GDP valued at US$4.18 trillion, India has surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, and is poised to displace Germany from the third rank in the next two-and-a-half to three years, with projected GDP of US$7.3 trillion by 2030.”
IMF projections for 2026 put India’s economy at US$4.51 trillion, compared with Japan’s US$4.46 trillion.
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New Delhi’s upbeat assessment comes despite economic worries after Washington in August hit New Delhi with huge tariffs over its purchases of Russian oil.