In close US election, 1 thing is certain: more tariffs on China

No matter who emerges the victor after this week’s US presidential election, Vietnam-based consultant Kyle Freeman doubts demand for his services has anywhere to go but up.

Whether former president Donald Trump or current Vice-President Kamala Harris enter the White House in January, businesses are almost certain to continue exploring moves from China to destinations like Freeman’s current base of operations.

“There is an expectation that tariffs on China will continue under either potential administration,” said Freeman, a partner at business advisory firm Dezan Shira & Associates. “However, the [two candidates’] approach to trade policies are very different. There is a greater degree of uncertainty [for businesses] in this election than in 2020.”

For now, his clients are taking a wait-and-see approach.

“Clients are holding off on new investment until the election brings a little bit more clarity on trade policy,” Freeman said. He moved from China to Ho Chi Minh City two years ago, as his American and European clients began to adopt a “China plus one” strategy of diversification in response to US-led tariffs and heightened geopolitical tensions.

There is no sign either candidate will back down on the tariff question, as keeping China’s economic rise in check has become the rare issue in American politics to receive bipartisan support. Most view heavier taxes on imports as a means to protect US industrial capacity from what is commonly termed “unfair” foreign competition.

But with a new administration set to take office no matter the election outcome, the trade positions of the world’s two largest economies are still expected to undergo major transformations as the countries’ ongoing dispute enters a new stage.