If the US wants Japan, Australia to commit to Taiwan role, will they agree?

The United States is unlikely to secure public pledges from Japan and Australia on what they would do if a conflict broke out with Beijing over Taiwan, according to analysts in mainland China and the US.

They said Washington’s efforts to pressure its two key Asia-Pacific allies while amplifying the so-called China threat only revealed “weakening” confidence in its ability to manage regional tensions.

Over the weekend, the Financial Times reported that the US had also been putting pressure on Japan and Australia to clarify what role they would play if Washington and Beijing went to war over Taiwan.

US defence undersecretary for policy Elbridge Colby had been pushing the matter with Japanese and Australian officials, the report said, citing anonymous sources.

In a social media post on Saturday, Colby said the Pentagon was focused on “restoring deterrence and achieving peace through strength” including “by urging allies to step up their defence spending and other efforts related to our collective defence”. The post made no mention of Taiwan.

Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, said the reported push on allies was in line with US President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure approach.

“I think the main goal could be to hype up the ‘China threat’ … to push countries like Japan and Australia to increase their defence spending and to strengthen military cooperation with the US, such as by buying American weapons,” Xin said.