This year’s Munich Security Conference has become a watershed moment, marking a new era in transatlantic relations. The growing rift between the United States and Europe is fundamentally reshaping the trajectory of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war settlement. At the same time, the Trump administration’s approach is altering the role that other countries, including China, could play in resolving the war.
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The White House has all but ruled out additional players at the negotiating table so far, including European states. Kyiv and Beijing have insisted on broader participation, but after the collapse in talks last week between the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump, the negotiation process itself is now in question.
Meanwhile, China’s potential involvement in Ukraine’s security architecture has emerged as a point of discussion. In an interview on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference earlier this month, Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, stated that China could participate in providing collective security guarantees. This could involve the deployment of Chinese peacekeepers in Ukraine after the cessation of hostilities.
Over the past few decades, over 40,000 Chinese peacekeepers have been deployed to missions across five continents. However, with the idea of deploying a peacekeeping contingent being discussed in European capitals, reaching a consensus on China’s involvement remains unlikely.
In Europe, voices warning that China is not just an economic challenge but a fundamental security threat still resonate loudly and convincingly. The debate over Beijing’s growing influence remains intense, with concerns extending beyond trade to the very foundations of Europe’s strategic stability.
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Such arguments hold weight. In 2024, China conducted the “Eagle Assault” military exercises alongside Belarus. While officially labelled as anti-terrorism drills, they were also justified by Minsk’s strategy to reduce its dependence on the Kremlin, given Russia’s diminishing ability to act as a security guarantor. However, Europe became alarmed that Hannibal was at the gates.