How Trump’s Iran strikes doomed his North Korea strategy

Barely five months into his second term, US President Donald Trump’s “spectacular military success” in striking Iranian nuclear facilities reveals a stark contradiction at the heart of his foreign policy approach. While the US leader campaigned on ending wars through negotiation, his swift pivot from diplomacy to destruction in Iran carries profound implications for the decades-long nuclear stand-off with North Korea.

The weekend strikes against three Iranian nuclear facilities, which Trump threatened would be followed by attacks on more targets if Tehran did not comply, are not just another military intervention in the Middle East. They constitute a dangerous precedent that fundamentally undermines any prospect of meaningful diplomacy with adversaries, including Pyongyang.

North Korea was quick to condemn the US attack against its diplomatic ally. It said the strikes violated the UN Charter “and violently trampled down the territorial integrity and security interests of a sovereign state”.

Trump announced on Monday night that a ceasefire was brokered with Iran after the latter launched missiles at the Al Udeid US military base in Qatar. However, it is unclear whether Iran and Israel will adhere to a prolonged cessation of hostilities.

Despite Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un holding summits in Singapore and Vietnam, the strikes in Iran are likely to confirm one of Pyongyang’s greatest fears: diplomatic engagement with the United States can quickly turn into military devastation. Even if a US president expresses interest in diplomacy, this doesn’t mean they will remain committed to the process.

The talks with Iran are a case in point. Soon after resuming the presidency, Trump spoke of the need for diplomacy with Iran, sending his envoys to Oman to engage in multiple rounds of talks with their Iranian counterparts. At the same time, however, Trump threatened to bomb Iran if a diplomatic agreement was not reached within 60 days. While that might have sounded like Trump’s typical approach of bluffing with bellicose rhetoric, this time it was anything but.

  

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